Probability-3 course was a nightmare for me and I even
had to appear for backpaper for this course. This question
originally came in the end-semester paper for B.Stat 2nd
Year in session 2025-26. Yeah, this one was exceptionally
hard to be done in exam conditions, although with the right
tools, this isnβt very difficult, but producing the details
with this much perfection is still quite hard. Our
professor wonβt leave us if we wrote even a single
half-baked argument π«
Table of Contents
π Problem Statement
Let T \mathcal{T} T be the set of all real-valued random
variables defined on a given probability space
( Ξ© , F , P ) (\Omega, \mathcal{F} ,\mathbb{P}) ( Ξ© , F , P ) (where
two random variables are said to be equivalent if
they are equal with probability 1 1 1 ). Define
d ( X , Y ) β inf β‘ { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } , X , Y β T d(X,Y) \coloneqq \inf\{\epsilon \ge 0 : \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > \epsilon) \le \epsilon \}, \quad X,Y \in \mathcal{T} d ( X , Y ) : = inf { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } , X , Y β T Show that the infimum in the definition of d d d is
attained. Show that d d d is a metric on T \mathcal{T} T . Let X β T X \in \mathcal{T} X β T and { X n } n β₯ 1 \{X_n\}_{n \ge 1} { X n β } n β₯ 1 β be a
sequence with X n β T X_n \in \mathcal{T} X n β β T for n β₯ 1 n \ge 1 n β₯ 1 . Show
that
X n β p X β
β βΊ β
β d ( X n , X ) β 0 X_n \overset{p}{\to} X \iff d(X_n, X) \to 0 X n β β p X βΊ d ( X n β , X ) β 0 as n β β n \to \infty n β β .
Show that T \mathcal{T} T is complete with respect to
metric d d d .
π‘Solution
We will solve the problem part by part. Also, for the
entire solution, define
D X , Y β { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } . D_{X,Y}\coloneqq \{\epsilon \ge 0 : \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > \epsilon) \le \epsilon \}. D X , Y β : = { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } .
Part A
D X , Y D_{X,Y} D X , Y β is non-empty since
1 β D X , Y 1 \in D_{X,Y} 1 β D X , Y β and D X , Y D_{X,Y} D X , Y β is bounded below by 0 0 0 by
definition. Thus, the infimum exists. Let
Ξ³ = inf β‘ D X , Y \gamma = \inf D_{X,Y} Ξ³ = inf D X , Y β , which means there exists a real
sequence a n β Ξ³ a_n \searrow \gamma a n β β Ξ³ where a n β D X , Y a_n \in D_{X,Y} a n β β D X , Y β . Thus,
P ( β£ X β Y β£ > a n ) β€ a n forΒ allΒ n β₯ 1. \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > a_n) \le a_n \quad \text{for all } n \ge 1. P ( β£ X β Y β£ > a n β ) β€ a n β forΒ allΒ n β₯ 1.
Write P ( β£ X β Y β£ > a n ) = 1 β P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ a n ) \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > a_n) = 1 - \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| \le a_n) P ( β£ X β Y β£ > a n β ) = 1 β P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ a n β ) and let Z = β£ X β Y β£ Z = |X-Y| Z = β£ X β Y β£ . Then we get
1 β a n β€ P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ a n ) = F Z ( a n ) 1 - a_n \le \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| \le a_n) = F_Z(a_n) 1 β a n β β€ P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ a n β ) = F Z β ( a n β )
Taking n β β n \to \infty n β β , then by the right continuity of
F Z F_Z F Z β , we get
1 β Ξ³ β€ F Z ( Ξ³ ) = P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ Ξ³ ) = 1 β P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ξ³ ) . 1 - \gamma \le F_Z(\gamma) = \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| \le \gamma) = 1 - \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > \gamma). 1 β Ξ³ β€ F Z β ( Ξ³ ) = P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ Ξ³ ) = 1 β P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ξ³ ) .
Rearranging, we get
P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ξ³ ) β€ Ξ³ β
β βΉ β
β Ξ³ β D X , Y \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > \gamma) \le \gamma \implies \gamma \in D_{X,Y} P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ξ³ ) β€ Ξ³ βΉ Ξ³ β D X , Y β
which completes the proof to the first part. β \blacksquare β
Part B
This one is trickier, lets first recall the definition of
a metric space for our context, where the parent set is
T \mathcal{T} T and distance function is d d d .
A pair ( T , d ) (\mathcal{T}, d) ( T , d ) is a metric space (where
d ββ£ : T Γ T β R d\colon \mathcal{T} \times \mathcal{T} \to \mathbb{R} d : T Γ T β R )
if d d d satisifies:1
d ( X , Y ) = 0 β
β βΊ β
β X = Y β β a.s d(X,Y) = 0 \iff X = Y\,\,\text{a.s} d ( X , Y ) = 0 βΊ X = Y a.s ;
d ( X , Y ) = d ( Y , X ) d(X,Y) = d(Y,X) d ( X , Y ) = d ( Y , X ) for all X , Y β T X,Y \in \mathcal{T} X , Y β T ; β[Symmetry]
d ( X , Z ) β€ d ( X , Y ) + d ( Y , Z ) d(X,Z) \le d(X,Y) + d(Y,Z) d ( X , Z ) β€ d ( X , Y ) + d ( Y , Z ) for all X , Y , Z β T X,Y,Z \in \mathcal{T} X , Y , Z β T .β[Triangle Inequality]
We will start with the first point. Assume that d ( X , Y ) = 0 d(X,Y) = 0 d ( X , Y ) = 0 .
By part a), we know that the infimum is attained,
thus we have
P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) β€ 0. \mathbb{P}\left( |X-Y| > 0 \right) \le 0. P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) β€ 0.
Since P ( β ) β₯ 0 \mathbb{P}(\bullet) \ge 0 P ( β ) β₯ 0 , we get
P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) = 0 β
β βΉ β
β P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ 0 ) = 1. \begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}\left(|X-Y| > 0 \right) &= 0 \\
\implies \mathbb{P}\left( |X-Y| \le 0 \right) &= 1.
\end{align*} P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) βΉ P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ 0 ) β = 0 = 1. β
Since β£ r β£ β₯ 0 |r| \ge 0 β£ r β£ β₯ 0 for any r β R r \in \mathbb{R} r β R , we get
P ( 0 β€ β£ X β Y β£ β€ 0 ) = 1 β
β βΉ β
β P ( X β Y = 0 ) = 1 \mathbb{P}(0 \le |X-Y| \le 0) = 1 \implies P(X-Y = 0) = 1 P ( 0 β€ β£ X β Y β£ β€ 0 ) = 1 βΉ P ( X β Y = 0 ) = 1 .
Thus
P ( X = Y ) = 1 , \mathbb{P}(X = Y) = 1, P ( X = Y ) = 1 ,
which shows d ( X , Y ) = 0 β
β βΉ β
β X = Y β β a.s. d(X,Y) = 0 \implies X = Y\,\,\text{a.s.} d ( X , Y ) = 0 βΉ X = Y a.s. Now
assume that X = Y β β a.s X = Y\,\, \text{a.s} X = Y a.s , then
0 β D X , Y β
β βΊ β
β P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) β€ 0 β
β βΊ β
β P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) = 0 β
β βΊ β
β P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ 0 ) = 1. 0 \in D_{X,Y} \iff \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > 0) \le 0 \iff \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > 0) = 0 \iff \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| \le 0) = 1. 0 β D X , Y β βΊ P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) β€ 0 βΊ P ( β£ X β Y β£ > 0 ) = 0 βΊ P ( β£ X β Y β£ β€ 0 ) = 1.
Finally, this means
0 β D X , Y β
β βΊ β
β P ( X β Y = 0 ) = 1 β
β βΊ β
β X = Y β β a.s. 0 \in D_{X,Y} \iff \mathbb{P}(X - Y = 0) = 1 \iff X = Y\,\,\text{a.s.} 0 β D X , Y β βΊ P ( X β Y = 0 ) = 1 βΊ X = Y a.s. Recall that 0 β€ t 0 \le t 0 β€ t for all t β D X , Y t \in D_{X,Y} t β D X , Y β ,
and now we have shown 0 β D X , Y 0 \in D_{X,Y} 0 β D X , Y β , which means
d ( X , Y ) = inf β‘ D X , Y = 0 d(X,Y) = \inf D_{X,Y} = 0 d ( X , Y ) = inf D X , Y β = 0 as desired.
Proving symmetry is simple. Just note that
D X , Y = { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } = { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ Y β X β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } = D Y , X D_{X,Y} = \{\epsilon \ge 0 : \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > \epsilon) \le \epsilon \} = \{\epsilon \ge 0 : \mathbb{P}(|Y-X| > \epsilon) \le \epsilon \} = D_{Y,X} D X , Y β = { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ X β Y β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } = { Ο΅ β₯ 0 : P ( β£ Y β X β£ > Ο΅ ) β€ Ο΅ } = D Y , X β
where the equality of probabilities follows from the
simple fact that β£ r β£ = β£ β r β£ |r| = |-r| β£ r β£ = β£ β r β£ for all r β R r \in \mathbb{R} r β R .
This gives inf β‘ D X , Y = inf β‘ D Y , X β
β βΉ β
β d ( X , Y ) = d ( Y , X ) \inf D_{X,Y} = \inf D_{Y,X} \implies d(X,Y) = d(Y,X) inf D X , Y β = inf D Y , X β βΉ d ( X , Y ) = d ( Y , X ) and done.
We shall now prove the triangle inequality . This is
one is quite tricky. For X , Y , Z β T X,Y,Z \in \mathcal{T} X , Y , Z β T , we shall
prove
d ( X , Y ) β€ d ( X , Z ) + d ( Z , Y ) β
β βΊ β
β c β€ a + b d(X,Y) \le d(X,Z) + d(Z,Y) \iff c \le a + b d ( X , Y ) β€ d ( X , Z ) + d ( Z , Y ) βΊ c β€ a + b
where c = d ( X , Y ) c = d(X,Y) c = d ( X , Y ) , a = d ( X , Z ) a = d(X,Z) a = d ( X , Z ) and b = d ( Z , Y ) b = d(Z,Y) b = d ( Z , Y ) . Define
A β { Ο : β£ X ( Ο ) β Y ( Ο ) β£ > a + b } B β { Ο : β£ X ( Ο ) β Z ( Ο ) β£ > a } C β { Ο : β£ Z ( Ο ) β Y ( Ο ) β£ > b } \begin{align*}
A &\coloneqq \{\omega : |X(\omega) - Y(\omega)| > a+b \} \\
B &\coloneqq \{\omega : |X(\omega) - Z(\omega)| > a \} \\
C &\coloneqq \{\omega : |Z(\omega) - Y(\omega)| > b \}
\end{align*} A B C β : = { Ο : β£ X ( Ο ) β Y ( Ο ) β£ > a + b } : = { Ο : β£ X ( Ο ) β Z ( Ο ) β£ > a } : = { Ο : β£ Z ( Ο ) β Y ( Ο ) β£ > b } β
We claim
the following.
A β B βͺ C A \subseteq B \cup C A β B βͺ C .
Let Ξ± β A \alpha \in A Ξ± β A . We wish to show that
Ξ± β B βͺ C \alpha \in B \cup C Ξ± β B βͺ C . Assume otherwise,
Ξ± βΜΈ B βͺ C \alpha \not\in B \cup C Ξ± ξ β B βͺ C if and only if
Ξ± β ( B βͺ C ) β² = B β² β© C β² \alpha \in (B \cup C)' = B' \cap C' Ξ± β ( B βͺ C ) β² = B β² β© C β² . Since
Ξ± β B β² β© C β² \alpha \in B' \cap C' Ξ± β B β² β© C β² , we must have
β£ X ( Ξ± ) β Z ( Ξ± ) β£ β€ a β£ Z ( Ξ± ) β Y ( Ξ± ) β£ β€ b . \begin{align*}
|X(\alpha) - Z(\alpha)| &\le a \\
|Z(\alpha) - Y(\alpha)| &\le b.
\end{align*} β£ X ( Ξ± ) β Z ( Ξ± ) β£ β£ Z ( Ξ± ) β Y ( Ξ± ) β£ β β€ a β€ b . β Adding the above equations and using triangle inequality
in R \mathbb{R} R gives
β£ X ( Ξ± ) β Y ( Ξ± ) β£ β€ a + b . |X(\alpha) - Y(\alpha)| \le a + b. β£ X ( Ξ± ) β Y ( Ξ± ) β£ β€ a + b . This is a contradiction since Ξ± β A \alpha \in A Ξ± β A gives
β£ X ( Ξ± ) β Y ( Ξ± ) β£ > a + b |X(\alpha) - Y(\alpha)| > a + b β£ X ( Ξ± ) β Y ( Ξ± ) β£ > a + b . Hence, the
claim is proved. β‘ \square β‘
With the above claim and with the union bound
P ( A ) β€ P ( B βͺ C ) β€ P ( B ) + P ( C ) \mathbb{P}(A) \le \mathbb{P}(B \cup C) \le \mathbb{P}(B) + \mathbb{P}(C) P ( A ) β€ P ( B βͺ C ) β€ P ( B ) + P ( C )
we get
P ( β£ X β Y β£ > a + b ) = P ( A ) β€ P ( β£ X β Z β£ > a ) + P ( β£ Z β Y β£ > b ) = a + b \mathbb{P}(|X-Y| > a + b) = \mathbb{P}(A) \le \mathbb{P}(|X-Z| > a) + \mathbb{P}(|Z-Y| > b) = a + b P ( β£ X β Y β£ > a + b ) = P ( A ) β€ P ( β£ X β Z β£ > a ) + P ( β£ Z β Y β£ > b ) = a + b
which ultimately shows
a + b β D X , Y β
β βΉ β
β c = d ( X , Y ) = inf β‘ D X , Y β€ a + b a+b \in D_{X,Y} \implies c = d(X,Y) = \inf D_{X,Y} \le a + b a + b β D X , Y β βΉ c = d ( X , Y ) = inf D X , Y β β€ a + b
completing the proof to Part B . β \blacksquare β
Part C
Assume X n β p X X_n \overset{p}{\to} X X n β β p X . Fix Ξ΅ > 0 \varepsilon > 0 Ξ΅ > 0 , we
now need to show that there exists N β N N \in \mathbb{N} N β N such
that d ( X n , X ) = β£ d ( X n , X ) β 0 β£ < Ξ΅ d(X_n, X) = |d(X_n, X) - 0| < \varepsilon d ( X n β , X ) = β£ d ( X n β , X ) β 0β£ < Ξ΅ for
all n > N n > N n > N . Since X n β p X X_n \overset{p}{\to} X X n β β p X , for all
Ξ· > 0 \eta > 0 Ξ· > 0 there exists N 1 β N N_1 \in \mathbb{N} N 1 β β N such that
P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) < Ξ· β n > N 1 β
β βΉ β
β P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) β€ Ξ· forΒ allΒ n > N 1 \mathbb{P}(|X_n - X| > \varepsilon/2) < \eta \quad \forall n > N_1 \implies \mathbb{P}(|X_n - X| > \varepsilon/2) \le \eta \quad \text{for all }n > N_1 P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) < Ξ· β n > N 1 β βΉ P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) β€ Ξ· forΒ allΒ n > N 1 β
Since Ξ· \eta Ξ· is free, put Ξ· = Ξ΅ / 2 \eta = \varepsilon/2 Ξ· = Ξ΅ /2 to get
P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) β€ Ξ΅ 2 forΒ allΒ n > N 1 β
β βΉ β
β Ξ΅ / 2 β D X n , X forΒ allΒ n > N 1 . \mathbb{P}(|X_n - X| > \varepsilon/2) \le \frac{\varepsilon}{2} \quad \text{for all } n > N_1 \implies \varepsilon/2 \in D_{X_n, X} \quad \text{for all }n > N_1. P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) β€ 2 Ξ΅ β forΒ allΒ n > N 1 β βΉ Ξ΅ /2 β D X n β , X β forΒ allΒ n > N 1 β .
To finish it off, this means
( inf β‘ D X n , X ) β€ Ξ΅ / 2 (\inf D_{X_n, X}) \le \varepsilon/2 ( inf D X n β , X β ) β€ Ξ΅ /2 for all n > N 1 n > N_1 n > N 1 β ,
which gives
d ( X n , X ) β€ Ξ΅ 2 < Ξ΅ forΒ allΒ n > N 1 d(X_n, X) \le \frac{\varepsilon}{2} < \varepsilon \quad \text{for all }n > N_1 d ( X n β , X ) β€ 2 Ξ΅ β < Ξ΅ forΒ allΒ n > N 1 β
which proves lim β‘ n β β d ( X n , X ) = 0 \displaystyle\lim_{n \to \infty} d(X_n, X) = 0 n β β lim β d ( X n β , X ) = 0
as needed.
The other direction is quite easy as well, assume
lim β‘ n β β d ( X n , X ) = 0 \displaystyle\lim_{n \to \infty} d(X_n, X) = 0 n β β lim β d ( X n β , X ) = 0 and
define a n β d ( X n , X ) a_n \coloneqq d(X_n,X) a n β : = d ( X n β , X ) . By definition of
a n a_n a n β , we know that P ( β£ X n β X β£ > a n ) β€ a n \mathbb{P}(|X_n-X| > a_n) \le a_n P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > a n β ) β€ a n β for
all n β N n \in \mathbb{N} n β N . Fix Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 \varepsilon, \eta > 0 Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 .
Since a n > 0 a_n > 0 a n β > 0 and a n β 0 a_n \to 0 a n β β 0 , we can find
N 1 β N N_1 \in \mathbb{N} N 1 β β N such that a n < Ξ΅ a_n < \varepsilon a n β < Ξ΅ for
n > N 1 n > N_1 n > N 1 β . Moreover, we can also find
N 2 β N N_2 \in \mathbb{N} N 2 β β N such that a n < Ξ· a_n < \eta a n β < Ξ· for n > N 2 n > N_2 n > N 2 β .
For n > max β‘ ( N 1 , N 2 ) n > \max(N_1,N_2) n > max ( N 1 β , N 2 β ) we have
P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ X n β X β£ > a n ) β€ a n < Ξ· β
β βΉ β
β P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ ) < Ξ· forΒ allΒ n > max β‘ ( N 1 , N 2 ) \begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}(|X_n - X| > \varepsilon) \le \mathbb{P}(|X_n - X| > a_n) \le a_n < \eta \\
\implies \mathbb{P}(|X_n - X| > \varepsilon) < \eta \quad \text{for all } n > \max(N_1,N_2)
\end{align*} P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > a n β ) β€ a n β < Ξ· βΉ P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > Ξ΅ ) < Ξ· forΒ allΒ n > max ( N 1 β , N 2 β ) β
which proves that X n β p X X_n \overset{p}{\to} X X n β β p X . This completes
the proof to Part C . β \blacksquare β
Part D
This one will use a few tools, specifically the
Cauchy Criteria for convergence in probability of
random variables. We shall now define what
cauchy in probability means and then prove the
theorem which will trivialize the problem.
We say a that a sequence of random variables
{ X n } n β₯ 1 \{X_n\}_{n \ge 1} { X n β } n β₯ 1 β is Cauchy in Probability if
for all Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 \varepsilon, \eta > 0 Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 there exists
N β N N \in \mathbb{N} N β N such that
P ( β£ X m β X n β£ > Ξ΅ ) < Ξ· \mathbb{P}(|X_m - X_n| > \varepsilon) < \eta P ( β£ X m β β X n β β£ > Ξ΅ ) < Ξ· for all m , n > N m,n > N m , n > N .
For a sequence of real-valued random variables
{ X n } n β₯ 1 \{X_n\}_{n \ge 1} { X n β } n β₯ 1 β
X n β p X β
β βΊ β
β { X n } n β₯ 1 β β isΒ CauchyΒ inΒ Probability. X_n \overset{p}{\to} X \iff \{X_n\}_{n \ge 1}\,\,\text{is Cauchy in Probability.} X n β β p X βΊ { X n β } n β₯ 1 β isΒ CauchyΒ inΒ Probability.
Assume X n β p X X_n \overset{p}{\to} X X n β β p X . Fix Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 \varepsilon, \eta > 0 Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 .
By convergence in probability, we know there exists
N β N N \in \mathbb{N} N β N such that
P ( β£ X m β X β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) < Ξ· 2 \mathbb{P}(|X_m - X| > \varepsilon/2) < \frac \eta 2 P ( β£ X m β β X β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) < 2 Ξ· β for all m > N m > N m > N . Define
A β { Ο : β£ X m ( Ο ) β X n ( Ο ) β£ > Ξ΅ } B β { Ο : β£ X m ( Ο ) β X ( Ο ) β£ > Ξ΅ 2 } C β { Ο : β£ X n ( Ο ) β X ( Ο ) β£ > Ξ΅ 2 } \begin{align*}
A &\coloneqq \{\omega : |X_m(\omega) - X_n(\omega)| > \varepsilon \} \\
B &\coloneqq \left\{\omega : |X_m(\omega) - X(\omega)| > \frac\varepsilon 2\right\} \\
C &\coloneqq \left\{\omega : |X_n(\omega) - X(\omega)| > \frac\varepsilon 2 \right\}
\end{align*} A B C β : = { Ο : β£ X m β ( Ο ) β X n β ( Ο ) β£ > Ξ΅ } : = { Ο : β£ X m β ( Ο ) β X ( Ο ) β£ > 2 Ξ΅ β } : = { Ο : β£ X n β ( Ο ) β X ( Ο ) β£ > 2 Ξ΅ β } β A β B βͺ C . A \subseteq B \cup C. A β B βͺ C . We ommit the proof, since its analogous to the
claim in Part B . For m , n > N m,n > N m , n > N , using the claim
in conjunction with the union bound 2 like in
Part B we get
P ( β£ X m β X n β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ X m β X β£ > Ξ΅ 2 ) + P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ 2 ) < Ξ· / 2 + Ξ· / 2 = Ξ· \mathbb{P}(|X_m-X_n| > \varepsilon) \le \mathbb{P}\left(|X_m - X| > \frac\varepsilon 2\right) + \mathbb{P}\left(|X_n - X| > \frac \varepsilon 2 \right) < \eta/2 + \eta/2 = \eta P ( β£ X m β β X n β β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ X m β β X β£ > 2 Ξ΅ β ) + P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > 2 Ξ΅ β ) < Ξ· /2 + Ξ· /2 = Ξ· which proves that { X n } n β₯ 1 \{X_n\}_{n \ge 1} { X n β } n β₯ 1 β is cauchy
in probability as desired.
The other direction is much harder. Iβd produce the proof
as it is done by our Professor with some commentary as the
proof is quite involved. Assume that
{ X n } n β₯ 1 \{X_n\}_{n \ge 1} { X n β } n β₯ 1 β is cauchy in probability .
Step 1 β Construct a rapidly Cauchy subsequence.
Since
{ X n } \{X_n\} { X n β } is Cauchy in probability, for each
j β N j\in\mathbb{N} j β N we can choose an index
n j n_j n j β (with
n 1 < n 2 < β¦ n_1 < n_2 < \dots n 1 β < n 2 β < β¦ ) such that
β β r , s β₯ n j , P ( β£ X r β X s β£ > 2 β j ) < 2 β j . \forall\, r,s \ge n_j, \qquad \mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_r - X_s| > 2^{-j}\bigr) < 2^{-j}. β r , s β₯ n j β , P ( β£ X r β β X s β β£ > 2 β j ) < 2 β j . In particular, for every j j j we have
P ( β£ X n j + 1 β X n j β£ > 2 β j ) < 2 β j . \mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_{n_{j+1}} - X_{n_j}| > 2^{-j}\bigr) < 2^{-j}. P ( β£ X n j + 1 β β β X n j β β β£ > 2 β j ) < 2 β j .
Step 2 β Apply BorelβCantelli.
Because
β j = 1 β 2 β j < β \sum_{j=1}^{\infty} 2^{-j} < \infty β j = 1 β β 2 β j < β , the first BorelβCantelli lemma gives
P ( β£ X n j + 1 β X n j β£ > 2 β j i.o.Β inΒ j ) = 0. \mathbb{P}\bigl( |X_{n_{j+1}} - X_{n_j}| > 2^{-j} \text{i.o. in $j$} \bigr) = 0. P ( β£ X n j + 1 β β β X n j β β β£ > 2 β j i.o.Β inΒ j ) = 0. Define the event
A = { Ο : β£ X n j + 1 ( Ο ) β X n j ( Ο ) β£ > 2 β j Β forΒ onlyΒ finitelyΒ manyΒ j } . A = \bigl\{ \omega : |X_{n_{j+1}}(\omega) - X_{n_j}(\omega)| > 2^{-j} \text{ for only finitely many } j \bigr\}. A = { Ο : β£ X n j + 1 β β ( Ο ) β X n j β β ( Ο ) β£ > 2 β j Β forΒ onlyΒ finitelyΒ manyΒ j } . Then P ( A ) = 1 \mathbb{P}(A) = 1 P ( A ) = 1 .
Step 3 β Almost sure convergence of the subsequence.
For any
Ο β A \omega \in A Ο β A , there exists
J ( Ο ) J(\omega) J ( Ο ) such that for all
j β₯ J ( Ο ) j \ge J(\omega) j β₯ J ( Ο ) ,
β£ X n j + 1 ( Ο ) β X n j ( Ο ) β£ β€ 2 β j . |X_{n_{j+1}}(\omega) - X_{n_j}(\omega)| \le 2^{-j}. β£ X n j + 1 β β ( Ο ) β X n j β β ( Ο ) β£ β€ 2 β j . For k > β β₯ J ( Ο ) k > \ell \ge J(\omega) k > β β₯ J ( Ο ) we have the telescoping estimate
β£ X n k ( Ο ) β X n β ( Ο ) β£ β€ β i = β k β 1 β£ X n i + 1 ( Ο ) β X n i ( Ο ) β£ β€ β i = β β 2 β i = 2 β β + 1 . |X_{n_k}(\omega) - X_{n_\ell}(\omega)|
\le \sum_{i=\ell}^{k-1} |X_{n_{i+1}}(\omega) - X_{n_i}(\omega)|
\le \sum_{i=\ell}^{\infty} 2^{-i} = 2^{-\ell+1}. β£ X n k β β ( Ο ) β X n β β β ( Ο ) β£ β€ i = β β k β 1 β β£ X n i + 1 β β ( Ο ) β X n i β β ( Ο ) β£ β€ i = β β β β 2 β i = 2 β β + 1 . Hence { X n j ( Ο ) } \{X_{n_j}(\omega)\} { X n j β β ( Ο )} is a Cauchy sequence in R \mathbb{R} R and therefore converges. Define
X ( Ο ) = { lim β‘ j β β X n j ( Ο ) , Ο β A , 0 , Ο β A . X(\omega) = \begin{cases}
\displaystyle \lim_{j\to\infty} X_{n_j}(\omega), & \omega \in A,\\[4pt]
0, & \omega \notin A.
\end{cases} X ( Ο ) = { j β β lim β X n j β β ( Ο ) , 0 , β Ο β A , Ο β / A . β Then X X X is a random variable (the limit of measurable functions on A A A , and constant on A c A^c A c ). Moreover, X n j β a.s. X X_{n_j} \xrightarrow{\text{a.s.}} X X n j β β a.s. β X , which implies X n j β p X X_{n_j} \xrightarrow{p} X X n j β β p β X .
Step 4 β From the subsequence to the whole sequence.
Fix
Ξ΅ > 0 \varepsilon > 0 Ξ΅ > 0 and
Ξ· > 0 \eta > 0 Ξ· > 0 . Because
X n j β p X X_{n_j} \xrightarrow{p} X X n j β β p β X , there exists
J J J such that for all
j β₯ J j \ge J j β₯ J ,
P ( β£ X n j β X β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) < Ξ· / 2. \mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_{n_j} - X| > \varepsilon/2\bigr) < \eta/2. P ( β£ X n j β β β X β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) < Ξ· /2. Since { X n } \{X_n\} { X n β } is Cauchy in probability, we can also choose K K K such that for all m , n β₯ K m,n \ge K m , n β₯ K ,
P ( β£ X m β X n β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) < Ξ· / 2. \mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_m - X_n| > \varepsilon/2\bigr) < \eta/2. P ( β£ X m β β X n β β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) < Ξ· /2. Now take N = max β‘ ( n J , K ) N = \max(n_J, K) N = max ( n J β , K ) . For any n β₯ N n \ge N n β₯ N , pick a subsequence index n j n_j n j β with n j β₯ N n_j \ge N n j β β₯ N (possible because n j β β n_j \to \infty n j β β β ). Then
P ( β£ X n β X β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ X n β X n j β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) + P ( β£ X n j β X β£ > Ξ΅ / 2 ) < Ξ· / 2 + Ξ· / 2 = Ξ· . \begin{aligned}
\mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_n - X| > \varepsilon\bigr)
&\le \mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_n - X_{n_j}| > \varepsilon/2\bigr) + \mathbb{P}\bigl(|X_{n_j} - X| > \varepsilon/2\bigr) \\
&< \eta/2 + \eta/2 = \eta.
\end{aligned} P ( β£ X n β β X β£ > Ξ΅ ) β β€ P ( β£ X n β β X n j β β β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) + P ( β£ X n j β β β X β£ > Ξ΅ /2 ) < Ξ· /2 + Ξ· /2 = Ξ· . β Thus X n β p X X_n \xrightarrow{p} X X n β p β X , completing the proof. β‘ \quad\square β‘
Remark: Note that here, we just defined a map X X X
from Ξ© β R \Omega\to \RR Ξ© β R and we claimed that
X n β p X X_n \overset{p}{\to} X X n β β p X , but for this we need to make sure
that X X X is not just some arbitrary map, but a random
variable indeed. For the curious beginners, this is
covered in the the new blog post on Random Variables.
Returning back to the problem, let { Y n } n β₯ 1 \{Y_n\}_{n \ge 1} { Y n β } n β₯ 1 β
be a sequence of random variables with Y n β T Y_n \in \mathcal{T} Y n β β T
for all n β N n \in \mathbb{N} n β N which d β d- d β cauchy(that is
cauchy with the metric d d d ). We will prove that
{ Y n } n β₯ 1 \{Y_n\}_{n \ge 1} { Y n β } n β₯ 1 β is _cauchy in probability. Define
a m , n β d ( Y m , Y n ) a_{m,n} \coloneqq d(Y_m,Y_n) a m , n β : = d ( Y m β , Y n β ) . Fix Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 \varepsilon,\eta > 0 Ξ΅ , Ξ· > 0 ,
then by definition there exists some
N 1 , N 2 β N N_1, N_2 \in \mathbb{N} N 1 β , N 2 β β N such that
a m , n = d ( Y m , Y n ) < Ξ΅ forΒ allΒ m , n > N 1 ; a m , n = d ( Y m , Y n ) < Ξ· 2 forΒ allΒ m , n > N 2 . \begin{align*}
a_{m,n} &= d(Y_m,Y_n) < \varepsilon \quad \text{for all } m,n > N_1;\\
a_{m,n} &= d(Y_m,Y_n) < \frac{\eta}{2} \quad \text{for all } m,n > N_2.
\end{align*} a m , n β a m , n β β = d ( Y m β , Y n β ) < Ξ΅ forΒ allΒ m , n > N 1 β ; = d ( Y m β , Y n β ) < 2 Ξ· β forΒ allΒ m , n > N 2 β . β
For all m , n > max β‘ ( N 1 , N 2 ) m,n > \max(N_1, N_2) m , n > max ( N 1 β , N 2 β ) , we must have
P ( β£ Y m β Y n β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ Y m β Y n β£ > a m , n ) β€ a m , n β€ Ξ· 2 < Ξ· \mathbb{P}(|Y_m-Y_n| > \varepsilon) \le \mathbb{P}(|Y_m-Y_n| > a_{m,n}) \le a_{m,n} \le \frac{\eta}{2} < \eta P ( β£ Y m β β Y n β β£ > Ξ΅ ) β€ P ( β£ Y m β β Y n β β£ > a m , n β ) β€ a m , n β β€ 2 Ξ· β < Ξ·
where the second inequality is by definition of a m , n a_{m,n} a m , n β .
This shows that { Y n } n β₯ 1 \{Y_n\}_{n \ge 1} { Y n β } n β₯ 1 β is cauchy in
probability . Invoking the cited theorem, the proof to
Part D is βcompleteβ . β \blacksquare β